Mount St. Mary's University Political Science Professor Michael Towle, Ph.D., began writing Towle's Guide to Watching Election Returns for his Parties and Elections course more than 25 years ago. Over time, his readership has grown as word about his well-researched guide has spread. Many Mount students, faculty, staff and alumni will be watching the national presidential election night coverage on November 5 with Towle's guide in hand.
"While this is primarily designed to generate discussion in my Parties and Elections course (PS312), others have indicated that they like having my write-ups on election night. My goal is to educate, generate discussion about the processes of American politics, and to have some fun," Towle writes.'
Towle's guide includes an explanation of how the television networks and the Associated Press often determine the winner of elections before all the votes are counted as well as a look at the effect of early voting and mail-in ballots in some states. He also provides advice on which races to watch earlier in the evening for indications of the candidates' support.
While the media’s process will remain the same, it likely will take longer to have accurate results. A high percentage of Americans across the country have submitted mail-in ballots or participated in early voting. Some states such as Pennsylvania wait until after the polls close to begin counting mail-in ballots, so it is possible that some results will not be known for at least several days."One thing that is noticeable is that early votes seem to be coming more from women. So, is this a clear indicator of anything? Perhaps it shows more interest from women, but not necessarily. It could just mean that they just won’t be voting on election day in great numbers," Towle states. He predicts that the winner of the presidential election will be determined by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest.
Make sure you have Towle's Guide to Watching Election Returns for 2024 with you as you watch election coverage on November 5. Mounties who would like to receive Towle's predictions for individual races should email him at towle@msmary.edu for the unabridged guide,